P&L

Win rate is the easiest screenshot and the weakest metric

Seventy percent winners can still be a red book. Pair the rate with the payoff or do not publish it.

2025-11-04 · 5 min read

Win rate is the number traders quote at parties. It is also the number that hides the most.

A book that wins seven times out of ten, nicking ₹800 each time and losing ₹4,000 on the other three, is down money and feels like a winner.

Two books, one number each

Put them side by side and the illusion dies immediately. Win rate without payoff is half a sentence.

Same 100 trades, opposite outcomes

Book A — 70% win rate

  • 70 wins × ₹800 = ₹56,000
  • 30 losses × ₹4,000 = ₹1,20,000
  • Net: −₹64,000
  • Feels great, ends red

Book B — 40% win rate

  • 40 wins × ₹6,000 = ₹2,40,000
  • 60 losses × ₹2,500 = ₹1,50,000
  • Net: +₹90,000
  • Feels awful, ends green

Options inflate the count

If every leg of a spread counts as a trade, a four-leg structure that lost money can still contribute two "wins". Decide whether your unit is the fill or the strategy, then do not switch conventions in March because the stat looks better.

Filters are not skill

Remove afternoon fills and the rate jumps. Remove one bad week and it jumps again. Neither edit made you better.

Write the filter next to the number: financial year, product, broker, closed trades only. Your future self will not remember.

Win rate by entry hour, with trade counts
0%17%35%52%69% 44%9:15 (n=61)55%10:00 (n=38)62%11:00 (n=24)41%13:00 (n=17)38%14:30 (n=52)

The 11:00 bucket looks best and has the fewest trades. Illustrative journal data, not a live book and not a performance claim.

Key takeaways

Your book already has these numbers. Import a broker CSV and the charts above draw themselves from your own closed trades.
Open the journal